INTERNAL TOOL · 46Ten Sourcing Decision Desk · Not customer-facing
46Ten · sourcing decision desk · pulled from real Shopify + QBO data 2026-07-02

Overseas vs.
the local NJ press.

One question, two supply chains, screen-printed tees only. (Hoodies are out of scope — they're patchwork/embroidery, China-only.) This tool turns your actual China invoices and Township T-Shirt quotes into a per-unit truth on tees, then projects three years using your combined real volume from Shopify retail + TikTok Shop.

China tee landed $8.30 NJ tee all-in $12.75 Combined tee volume ~29,319/yr Section 122 tariff expiry Jul 24, 2026
01

The mental model

Don't frame this as "who's cheaper." China wins on unit cost and always will — the US blank alone costs about what a finished China tee costs landed. The real axes are volume and certainty. Each corner has a natural home.

ORDER VOLUME → DEMAND CERTAINTY → low / test high / reorder New drops, low qty → Local NJ. Fast, no deposit. Unproven at scale → Test local first, then commit Proven, small batch → Local reorder, stay in stock Proven winners, bulk → China. Lowest landed cost.

Local earns its premium in three corners; China owns the bottom-right. The projection below lets you put dollars on that split.

02

Per-unit truth

Pulled from your invoices. China's price arrives retail-ready (poly-bagged, barcoded, folded). The NJ rate bundles the US blank and the print, but folding and barcoding land on your team — so that labor is part of the honest all-in.

China tariff scenario
Section 122 layer expires Jul 24, 2026. Currently 46Ten reports paying $0 in duty (likely DDP-bundled).

Overseas · China

Landed / tee$8.30

Local · Township T-Shirt

All-in / tee$12.75

Where each dollar goes — per unit

03

The 3-year projection

Set your volumes, prices, and how much of production you route to NJ. The model compares three paths — all China, your hybrid, and all local — on raw gross profit and on profit adjusted for the two things overseas quietly costs you: dead inventory and sales missed while winners are out of stock for 30–40 days.

Volume & pricing · combined Shopify + TikTok Shop
Scenario dials
Annual unit growth20%
Hybrid: % routed to local NJ20%
Overseas dead-stock rate10%
Missed sales from slow reorders8%

Dead-stock and missed-sales penalties apply only to overseas-sourced units — that's the financial form of local's speed and small-batch flexibility. Working capital reflects a 40% deposit on overseas orders, cash that's locked before you sell a thing.

04

Cash-flow timeline

The unit-cost gap isn't the whole story. China asks for a 40% deposit and ties up cash for 30–40 days before goods arrive. Local pays on pickup, week 1. Against a real $8,908 checking balance (current QBO), a single $58k China deposit isn't just expensive — it's a financing decision. This timeline models 12 weeks of cash impact under each path for a representative reorder.

Reorder scenario
Timing assumptions

Cumulative cash position — week-by-week

05

Scenarios

Save the current dial settings under a name to compare strategies side-by-side. Saved scenarios persist in this browser only. Export the page as a one-pager PDF for sharing.

The read

46Ten sourcing model · live Shopify volumes pulled 2026-07-02 · defaults built from real China proformas + Township T-Shirt invoices 2767/2780 · QBO cash position as of pull · edit any field, everything recomputes live.