INTERNAL TOOL Β· 46Ten Sourcing Decision Desk Β· Not customer-facing
46Ten Β· sourcing decision desk Β· pulled from real Shopify + QBO data 2026-06-03

Overseas vs.
the local NJ press.

One question, two supply chains, screen-printed tees only. (Hoodies are out of scope β€” they're patchwork/embroidery, China-only.) This tool turns your actual China invoices and Township T-Shirt quotes into a per-unit truth on tees, then projects three years using your combined real volume from Shopify retail + TikTok Shop.

China tee landed $8.30 NJ tee all-in $12.75 Combined tee volume ~29,319/yr Section 122 tariff expiry Jul 24, 2026
01

The mental model

Don't frame this as "who's cheaper." China wins on unit cost and always will β€” the US blank alone costs about what a finished China tee costs landed. The real axes are volume and certainty. Each corner has a natural home.

ORDER VOLUME β†’ DEMAND CERTAINTY β†’ low / test high / reorder New drops, low qty β†’ Local NJ. Fast, no deposit. Unproven at scale β†’ Test local first, then commit Proven, small batch β†’ Local reorder, stay in stock Proven winners, bulk β†’ China. Lowest landed cost.

Local earns its premium in three corners; China owns the bottom-right. The projection below lets you put dollars on that split.

02

Per-unit truth

Pulled from your invoices. China's price arrives retail-ready (poly-bagged, barcoded, folded). The NJ rate bundles the US blank and the print, but folding and barcoding land on your team β€” so that labor is part of the honest all-in.

China tariff scenario
Section 122 layer expires Jul 24, 2026. Currently 46Ten reports paying $0 in duty (likely DDP-bundled).

Overseas Β· China

Landed / tee$8.30

Local Β· Township T-Shirt

All-in / tee$12.75

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Where each dollar goes β€” per unit

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03

The 3-year projection

Set your volumes, prices, and how much of production you route to NJ. The model compares three paths β€” all China, your hybrid, and all local β€” on raw gross profit and on profit adjusted for the two things overseas quietly costs you: dead inventory and sales missed while winners are out of stock for 30–40 days.

Volume & pricing Β· combined Shopify + TikTok Shop
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Scenario dials
Annual unit growth20%
Hybrid: % routed to local NJ20%
Overseas dead-stock rate10%
Missed sales from slow reorders8%

Dead-stock and missed-sales penalties apply only to overseas-sourced units β€” that's the financial form of local's speed and small-batch flexibility. Working capital reflects a 40% deposit on overseas orders, cash that's locked before you sell a thing.

04

Cash-flow timeline

The unit-cost gap isn't the whole story. China asks for a 40% deposit and ties up cash for 30–40 days before goods arrive. Local pays on pickup, week 1. Against a real $8,908 checking balance (current QBO), a single $58k China deposit isn't just expensive β€” it's a financing decision. This timeline models 12 weeks of cash impact under each path for a representative reorder.

Reorder scenario
Timing assumptions

Cumulative cash position β€” week-by-week

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05

Scenarios

Save the current dial settings under a name to compare strategies side-by-side. Saved scenarios persist in this browser only. Export the page as a one-pager PDF for sharing.

The read

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46Ten sourcing model Β· live Shopify volumes pulled 2026-06-03 Β· defaults built from real China proformas + Township T-Shirt invoices 2767/2780 Β· QBO cash position as of pull Β· edit any field, everything recomputes live.